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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
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The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.
James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.
The company must also provide data to the firms making markets on those events.
About Meow Janken
Young—whose previous credits include 2024’s Stealing Jokes starring Michael Rapaport; 2019’s Adam, starring Aaron Paul and Jeff Daniels; and My Man Is a Loser starring John Stamos—told The Hollywood Reporter that Morrow hired him directly to adapt his life.
“I was immediately drawn to the human side of his journey,” Young told the trade outlet, describing the project as a “rags-to-riches drama” tracing Morrow’s evolution from dedicated husband and father to viral gambling personality.
News of The Chop comes directly on the heels of HBO’s announcement that it is developing a drama series set in the actual advantage play space.
