Fengshen

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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”

If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

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A hearing before the Supreme Court would be the culmination of what has been the biggest sports betting-related development since PASPA. Perhaps no other issue has united gaming stakeholders from various companies, tribes, states and regulators.

Beginning with the US presidential elections in November 2024, when prediction markets catapulted into mainstream culture, their rise has been undeniable. Kalshi and Polymarket have seen their valuations balloon to $40 billion and $21 billion, respectively, and the majority of the top US bookmakers have scrambled to expand into the prediction space in various forms, either by building their own exchanges, acquiring existing ones or engaging in market-making.

Commercial sports betting generated just under $17 billion in nationwide revenue in 2025, which is why Davenport asserts that the “stakes of this case are exceptionally high”. Kalshi and Polymarket alone posted more than $45 billion in trading volume, which is similar but not identical to betting revenue, in August. That was a 15% decline from July, although that drop is attributed to the conclusion of the Fifa World Cup tournament that month per Yahoo! Finance.

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Faehrmann also hit back at the NSW’s latest gaming machine data that highlighted a record loss of $2.38 billion by NSW residents on pokies during Q2 of 2026. 

The MP blamed the Minns Labor government’s reforms for the losses, claiming: “The gambling industry understands exactly what this government’s approach means and they love it: more reviews, more delays and more record losses.

“The question for Chris Minns is simple: how much more harm is he prepared to tolerate before he stands up to the gambling lobby?” she asked.