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The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.

James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.

The company must also provide data to the firms making markets on those events.

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Its noisy and crowded parlours, he notes, do little to attract Japan’s critical demographic of women aged 40 and over. They “do not find pachi facilities comfortable or appealing”.

Given that women account for nearly 60% of gaming customers in the US, Klebanow argues that Japan’s IRs should instead offer environments where this demographic feels “safe and comfortable”. The key lesson from pachinko, he concludes, is therefore “not to create gaming environments that mimic them”.

Ultimately Leckert remains positive on Japan’s IR opportunity. “Stringent regulation really supports a strong industry,” she says. “I don’t see those being at odds with one another, because it’s been done very successfully elsewhere.”

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Meanwhile Blackstone, Cirsa’s largest shareholder, is expected to become the largest shareholder of the combined company, maintaining around 24% of the share capital.

The deal is expected to provide around €115 million of pre-tax cash synergies per year from opex and interest cost savings. These synergies are expected to be realised by the third full year following completion.

Angelozzi is set to serve as the combined company’s chairman and CEO, while Lottomatica’s deputy CEO and CFO Laurence Van Lancker will assume the same role.