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What is Ali Baba?
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated channels. Traditional sportsbooks are projected to capture $31.7 billion of that total, compared to a handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets—a 79% to 21% split in favor of legacy operators.
Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.
Based on its projections, EKG sees the overall sports wagering industry growing 8% year-over-year, outpacing the current baseline growth rate of 5% (a figure that strips out temporary boosts from the 2026 World Cup).
What is Ali Baba?
By comparison, the long tail of smaller black market sites rely heavily on affiliates to generate traffic.
Much of the onus for the increasing black market is put on increasingly restrictive policies enforced by regulators across the licensed sector.
Taking a deeper look at these restrictive driving black market activity, up to 46% of the markets covered in the report enforced “significant advertising restrictions” on the regulated market, including in Belgium, Bulgaria, Coratia, Cyprus, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and Spain.
What is Ali Baba?
Other means of dissemination: The prohibition includes advertising in electronic games and esports, sports uniforms and equipment, public transport and affiliate content, tipsters, comparison sites and other paid intermediaries.
Promotions and benefits: Bonuses, promotional credits, free bets, cashback, free spins, rewards and loyalty programmes used to encourage membership, retention or return to betting are prohibited.
Misleading messages: Messages that present betting as a risk-free activity, a source of income, a financial solution, a sure profit, a guaranteed method or a way to recover losses cannot be disseminated.
